Welcome to the first installment of the Thursday Five. Every Thursday I will choose 5 games in the NFL and tell you what to bet and why.
Eagles @ Packers (GB -4.5) Bet: Packers
This may be early, but I’m selling my stock on the Eagles this season. They haven’t looked good enough. Wentz isn’t showing that he can lead the eagles to a win in close games (0-2 this season) and the defense is 23rd in the league in points allowed per game. Meanwhile, Green Bay looks to have what will be a top 10 defense this year. The last time they had a defense this good, they won a super bowl. Aarons numbers have been improving each week, going up against the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings, all exceptional defenses. Ill swallow the points, 4.5 is too low for me when the Packers are at home and on a roll. Packers 27-21
Redskins @ Giants (NYG -3) Bet: Giants
Both teams give up large numbers of points, 94 points through three games. The only team that has allowed more points are the Dolphins. There is a big difference here though, and that is Daniel Jones. He is better than what we thought since he was drafted, however, he will not have Saquon Barkley, making his job that much tougher and giving the Redskins one less thing to worry about. I still think the Washington defense will not get the job done, and Jones will pick up the win. Giants 24-20
Titans @ Falcons (ATL -4) Bet: Titans
Do I think the Titans will win? No, but they could. Atlanta has all sorts of issues defensively, giving up 25 a game, while the Titans defense has made it tough for every team they have faced. Another factor that matters here, Mariota hasn’t thrown a pick this season, while Matt Ryan has thrown six. Tennessee is also 3rd in the league interceptions with 4. A mix of poor decisions thus far from Matt Ryan, a Tennessee defense that creates turnovers, and a better running game from the Titans will keep this game close. Falcons 17-14
Vikings @ Bears (CHI-2) Bet: Bears
This game is going to come down to whether the Vikings will be able to run the ball against the Chicago defense. The bears have only allowed 69 Rushing yards a game so far, 5th in the NFL. The Vikings are rushing for 194 yards per game. Offense doesn’t travel well, especially when going to the windy city. In all other important stats, these teams are level. The both have positive +/- on turnovers and both have excellent defenses. I think being at home gives the Bears an advantage that just can’t be ignored. Bears 13-10
Patriots @ Bills (NE -7.5) Bet: Patriots
This is still going to be a great game to watch. Josh Allen has been looking great this season, already winning 2 road games. The bills defense is top 5 as well, but here is the stat we all should be looking at. The Patriots have won seven in a row in Buffalo and Bellichick is 14-2 all time in Buffalo. The Patriots defense is also the best in the league, leading in interceptions with 6 and sacks with 13. Brady is also not throwing any picks, while Josh Allen has thrown 3. I can see Buffalo hanging with them the first half, maybe 3 quarters, but I’m still expecting a comfortable double-digit win for New England. Patriots 30-20
2Guys 1Ball 