Welcome Back for another installment of the Thursday 5. Every Thursday I choose 5 games in the NFL and tell you what to bet and why. Last week I was 3-2 and could’ve been 4-1 had Tom Brady shown up against Buffalo.
Rams @ Seahawks (SEA -1.5) Bet: Seahawks
When I first saw the line for this game, I thought it was going to be tough to decide, but after a little researching, it became quite easy. The Rams have absolutely no running game and the Seahawks have the 6th best defense against the run, meaning all the pressure is back on Goff after throwing the ball nearly 70 times against Tampa. Additionally, Goff hasn’t made great decisions this season so far, already with 6 Interceptions thrown. Wilson hasn’t thrown any and is completing a better percentage (72.9%) than Goff (64.2%). It will be close, but I’ll take the Seahawks defense to slow down the Rams enough to scrape by with a win. Seahawks 27-23
Buccaneers @ Saints (NO -3) Bet: Saints
I have confidence that the Buccs will do a decent job defensively. They have the best defense against the run (just 59.2 yards a game allowed), however they are second to last in the league in passing defense. Bridgewater is a seasoned enough quarterback to exploit mistakes that will be made by the Buccs defense in the air, and Alvin Kamara is still good enough to make an impact running the ball. I do not trust Jameis Winston though, even if he has been playing well after that abysmal season opener against the Niners. Another close game, but the Saints can be counted on more than the Buccs. Saints 23-17
Falcons @ Texans (HOU -5) Bet: Texans
5 points is a lot in the NFL, and if last week taught me anything, its that large spreads are tough to cover. This is different, because it’s the Falcons. Sure, Matt Ryan is throwing over 300 yards per game, it’s not translating to a lot. Only 17.5 points a game, 6 Interceptions, and their running game doesn’t do much, 27th in the league. Houston has a top 10 defense, allowing 19.5. The also run the ball well, and Atlanta gives up over 100 yards a game on the ground. I could eat dirt again picking the favorite with such a wide margin, but ill take a good Texans defense at home against the mistake prone Falcons offense who can’t produce on offense. Texans 24-17
Bills @ Titans (TEN -3) Bet: Bills
This is a sure fire upset. The Bills are excellent at the Titans Biggest weaknesses. First, the Bills are 4th in the league running the ball. The Titans are one of the worst teams defending the run. The Bills are also 4th in the league defending the pass. The Titans are also one of the worst teams passing the ball. Tennessee does know how to get interceptions, and Josh Allen has thrown twice the amount of Interceptions as TD’s. I think the Bills however will exploit the Titans weaknesses and keep Allen from throwing the ball too much and get a nice win on the road. Bills 17-13
Browns @ 49ers (SF -3.5) Bet: 49ers
The must watch game this week. I just don’t trust the browns to put together solid performances consecutively. The Browns strengths are running the football and getting to the opposing team’s quarterback. San Francisco has the 5th best running defense, and Jimmy G is getting sacked less than once per game. The Niners defense is real overall as well. 5 interceptions, allowing less than 300 yards in the air, and will be going against Baker Mayfield, who has thrown a pick every game. I expect Jimmy G to light it up in the air, Baker to be all over the place, and the Niners defense to swarm all over the Browns. 49ers 30-17
2Guys 1Ball 